Are you wondering what is going on with the electoral college? I was, and I did some time studying and considering. I share below what I found.
Warning: the first few sections are wordy. Feel free to skip to end for "what can I do about it?".
Q: What is the Electoral College?
A: a group of elected representatives. They are elected by the people of each state, in numbers based on how many House and Senate people each state has (bigger state population - more representatives.)
These representatives - I'll call them super-voters, were elected when you voted. If you voted for Hillary, you actually voted for dem's. If you voted for Trump, you voted for republican super-voters.
They will vote on December 19, in the formal election. What happened in November was the general election.. the pre-game show. Historically, the December election has been a formality. The party who wins the general election will have a majority in the college, and every member will vote for their own party's candidate. So, in the past, whoever won the general election was effectively guaranteed a win in the college.
So the formal event would not be big television show.. CSPAN at most.. and most people would pay it no mind. Some might not even realize that step in the process existed.
Q: WHY is the electoral College?
A: It was set up to be a safeguard against tyranny of the masses against minorities, to protect smaller states from the big ones.
America has never been a democracy. (shrly you jest sir!) No, and don't call me shrly. It's true, America is a democratic republic. It is NOT majority rule. There are checks and balances and certain right are protected.. even against majority vote.
Historically, one of those checks was the electoral college. It is a nuanced concept, so to better understand it, we need to look at the context of "The Federalist Papers" number 68: the mode of electing the President. Herein Alexander Hamilton explains the reason for the electoral college.
"It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the
choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided.
This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, ... to men chosen by the people for the special
purpose..."
"A small number of persons, selected by their
fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess
the information and discernment requisite to such complicated
investigations..."
[This will ensure]
"that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who
is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.
Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone
suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it
will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish
him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union."
So the idea is, that a con artist might be able to persuade one city, or a populated region. But it would not be practical to fool the entire nation without a legitimate set of governing credentials. Hamilton is arguing for a distributed approach to voting, that he believed to be more robust against the rise of a charlatan in a concentrated region. It is debatable whether or not this filter is effective in today's information age. Nonetheless, the point is clear:
the electoral college exists to serve as a check and balance against the rise of an unqualified candidate. It was put in place to prevent an unqualified person with charisma from pulling a con on the electorate.
So why talk about it now?
Who cares about this facade that will go on in December? .. Well, two things..
First of all, Hillary won the most votes in the general election.. by a good margin, by about 2 million votes at current count.
Secondly, some members of the republican party have not always been on good terms with their nominee. So it is possible to think that some of them might vote across party lines. I'm not saying it is likely by any stretch of the imagination.
But the constitution does allow it. The rules of the electoral college (that is, the process) would allow for that. There are subtleties in the law from state to state on how a super-voter can go rogue, but basically, it could be done. (see references for details by state)
What would have to happen?
At least
21 republican representatives would have to go rogue. I say 21 because you need 270 to have a majority, and he is at about 290 by latest count. So of those 290, 21 would need to defect. And that number could go up because a few states have not been called as I write this. That is not a small number. It's not like 2 or 3 RePubs with a conscience could do it alone. It would need to be a big group. And these representatives are appointed by the party. They are "good ole boys" -- meaning, loyal to the republican party.
But Trump is a wild-card here.
Consider this hypothetical.. suppose Jeb Bush had won the republican nomination (bear with me, just suppose). Then suppose that Jeb won the electoral map by 290:250 spread. Well, the republican party brought Jeb as their best foot forward, and, in this dream world, you can be sure Jeb would have courted them as a proper, traditional republican would, and he would have a good repore with republicans. Because Jeb knows how to play the game on "the man's" terms.
In this scenario, at the general election, 290 republican super-voters are elected, and 250 democrat super-voters. Obviously, all 290 republicans would vote for Jeb. There is no reason to think otherwise. The republicans would support another Bush, just as democrats would support another Clinton. no questions asked.
But the real situation is different. Trump is not a "real" republican.. meaning, he has no historical loyalty to the party and they have not always shown him support. So, what could, theoretically, happen - 21+ of them could go rogue, and vote against their party's nominee, and save the world. To be clear, this would be a republican representative, a beloved child of the party, a loyal republican.. going off script, and putting HRC..
Hillary The Villiary.. into the White House. And another thing.. ever hear the expression "dance with the one who brung ya"? That's a southern thing, so if you don't get it, let me translate.. it means, if someone hooks you up with a good deal.. be loyal. Trump got turn-out. Many, many, people came out for him who don't ordinarily vote, and, while they were in the booth, a lot of them went "red". So he "brung them". Now they owe him a debt. They owe him a dance.. an elector super-vote.
And why would they go off script? Would they rather deal with Hillary? I know some have their reservations with this guy, but for people who are anti-Hillary, the sentiment often runs strong. I think we can say for sure that in the case of Jeb Bush they would all have lined up and followed party protocol. ...BUT... in this election... it seems, not out of the realm of possibility, that there would be a grand finale surprise.
The meaning of "irony"
I do not use the word "irony" often.
I don't often use this word because it does not often apply, if used properly. But the quintessential example of
irony would be for the electoral college to select - against the general vote of the people - the very candidate it was designed to prevent.
What about the fact that Hillary has already conceded?
This does not appear to matter. I see no indication that the constitution has a clause like "void if conceded."
Can they change the rules after the election?
No. Hillary cannot bend the rules after the game is over. But the rules do allow for this possibility.
What are the odds?
I don't know. I can't know. To me it seems more likely that the actors will follow the script and we will be left with the outcome everyone expects. Perhaps, after that, we may reassess the electoral college process considering the current century, but I would not expect a shake-up that like at this point in the process. But then, I didn't expect this shake-up either.
What can I do?
Raise your voice.
there is a
petition you can sign at change.org:
https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19
you can re-post this article
here is my brief letter to all electoral votes. Boost this signal. Feel free to recopy into other media.
http://joelspunkrock.blogspot.com/2016/11/call-to-all-electoral-voters.html
Raise your voice and insist that the electors do their job.
If they just rubber-stamp the RePub nominee, they are not doing their job. They must assess credentials. One of the most important functions of POTUS is the handling of sensitive diplomatic affairs with foreign powers. The electors must consider Clinton's successful service in the State Department, and the numerous instances in which Trump has demonstrated conduct unbecoming a chief diplomat. They must consider his lack of relevant governing experience. They must consider the well-being of the Nation, of its allies world-wide, and of the planet's political eco-system.
So should I get my hopes up?
I don't recommend it. Consider this analogy (warning, it's grim). Think of the families of people on a plane that disappears at sea. At some point, everyone realizes those people are lost. But, until the plane is found, there is still this slim ray of hope. It actually helps to find the plane, because then people can have closure. It is possible that what I have described above is just this phantom ray of hope, that will vanish on December 19. I write this, not to get anyone's hopes up only to dash them later, but because we, as a country, should be aware of how our process works. And this is a teachable moment. And because the chance, however slim, is worth the effort to sign a petition and boost a signal.
Sources and References
petition:
https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19
Federalist Papers:
https://www.congress.gov/resources/display/content/The+Federalist+Papers#TheFederalistPapers-68
Fact Check:
http://www.factcheck.org/2016/11/could-electoral-college-elect-clinton/
More about the Electoral College:
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/electors.html#restrictions
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html
